June 20, 2009

"Mark my words." - VP Joe Biden



Here is the transcript, with an extra portion that is not included in the video above:
Mark my words. Mark my words. It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We’re about to elect a brilliant 47-year old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy. And he’s gonna have to make some really tough – I don’t know what the decision’s gonna be, but I promise you it will occur. As a student of history and having served with seven presidents, I guarantee you it’s gonna happen. I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate. And he’s gonna need help. And the kind of help he’s gonna need is, he’s gonna need you, not financially to help him, we’re gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it’s not gonna be apparent initially, it’s not gonna be apparent that we’re right. Because all these decisions, all these decisions, once they’re made if they work, then they weren’t viewed as a crisis. If they don’t work, it’s viewed as you didn’t make the right decision, a little bit like how we hesitated so long dealing with Bosnia and dealing with Kosovo, and consequently 200,000 people lost their lives that maybe didn’t have to lose lives. It’s how we made a mistake in Iraq. We made a mistake in Somalia. So there’s gonna be some tough decisions. They may emanate from the Middle East. They may emanate from the sub-continent. They may emanate from Russia’s newly-emboldened position because they’re floating in a sea of oil.”



It's been exactly five months since Obama's historic inauguration. Aside from pirate hunting off the coast of Somalia, the civilian killing in Afghanistan and Pakistan, nothing of major geopolitical importance has happened in Obama's brief time in office. Until now. The hostilities in Iran between an influential faction of the people and the regime is escalating every day. Blood is pouring in the streets...and the tragedy is that it may in fact be the generated crisis that Biden alluded to on the campaign trail. This could become Obama's Bay of Pigs.

The remarks below, made by Obama earlier today, shows he is watching his step, and choosing his words carefully. Mentioning MLK Jr, though, is a little inappropriate, since the protesters are acting more like Malcolm X. And good on them. I'm a Malcolm X fan myself, though, I admit, MLK's non-violent strategy is more effective in gaining the sympathies of all men and winning the long fight.

The Iranian government must understand that the world is watching. We mourn each and every innocent life that is lost. We call on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people. The universal rights to assembly and free speech must be respected, and the United States stands with all who seek to exercise those rights.


As I said in Cairo, suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. The Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government. If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect the dignity of its own people and govern through consent, not coercion.

Martin Luther King once said - "The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice." I believe that. The international community believes that. And right now, we are bearing witness to the Iranian peoples' belief in that truth, and we will continue to bear witness.